In terms of silicon manganese, point-to-point losses occurred, production growth slowed down, hot metal production in the off-season of building materials was suppressed, demand was weak and stable, and the inventory of the whole link was high. The current price is a game between the high stock in the near end and the lack of manganese ore in the far end, and the volatility is sharp, and the follow-up performance is concerned. In terms of ferrosilicon, the industry has high profits and abundant production capacity, but the three links have low inventories, and the price of the recent month contract still has upward volatility, and the price elasticity is limited under high profits, which follows the fluctuation of the black plate.
Market analysis shows that silicon manganese futures prices fluctuated down last week, spot by the supply side and futures plate price interference, wait-and-see sentiment is strong, trading in general. The operating rate and output of the supply side continue to increase, the inventory of high-grade silicon manganese in the port continues to diminish, and the shortage of high-grade manganese ore resources is difficult to solve in the short term, which supports the cost. The demand side of the building materials off-season hot metal production increment space is insufficient, and the demand is weak and stable. The high level of delivery warehouse receipts at the stock end increases, and the pressure of full-caliber warehouse removal is great. Ferrosilicon futures fell last week, the spot market long and short game was mixed, wait-and-see sentiment increased. The supply side output is stable, the price of raw material carbon is stable, and the price support is still in. The demand side is stable, but the subsequent off-season of steel consumption is approaching, and demand is expected to weaken. This week, the growth rate of ferrosilicon production slowed down, and the inventory gradually went away, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the inventory of finished products after the start of construction. Overall, the fundamental situation of ferrosilicon has not changed much, and it is expected that the short-term price will remain volatile under the long-short game.
In terms of strategy, both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon are oscillating. There were no cross-varieties or cross-periods.
In terms of risks, it is necessary to pay attention to the shipment of manganese ore, inventory and the increase of silicon manganese production, the purchase intention of steel mills, the change of electricity price and the policy of production areas.
