After the ferrosilicon was stimulated by the energy saving and carbon reduction documents, the price of the next day was sharply higher and the trading volume doubled, indicating that there were huge differences inside and outside the field.
The document pointed out that it is strictly prohibited to implement electricity price concessions for high-energy-consuming industries, and industries with high production power consumption have been directly affected by this.
At the same time, it is also emphasized to reduce non-power generation coal, and reasonably control the industrial scale of the production of upstream raw materials of ferrosilicon carbon, which requires about 1.1 tons of carbon per ton of ferrosilicon
Therefore, the policy may directly increase the cost of producing ferrosilicon, and the lowest production cost in Inner Mongolia is currently in the range of 6200.
Therefore, the content of the document has a direct impact on the upstream raw materials of ferrosilicon and the production, but the detailed document has not yet been issued.
Now the demand side is expected to strengthen with the steel real estate policy, and now the supply side is affected by the news, and the operating rate continues to increase production under the current profit situation, leading to expectations before and after supply and demand.
The fundamentals of ferrosilicon as a whole have strengthened, but such a rise is still the hype stage.
Due to the daily limit of the exchange also out of the risk control measures, increase the fee of ferrosilicon, increase the cost of speculation, June 4, effective Tuesday.
Ferrosilicon hype emotions are strong
Original 2024-06-02 21:30· Transaction interpretation
Trade interpretation visible opportunities
After the ferrosilicon was stimulated by the energy saving and carbon reduction documents, the price of the next day was sharply higher and the trading volume doubled, indicating that there were huge differences inside and outside the field.
The document pointed out that it is strictly prohibited to implement electricity price concessions for high-energy-consuming industries, and industries with high production power consumption have been directly affected by this.
At the same time, it is also emphasized to reduce non-power generation coal, and reasonably control the industrial scale of the production of upstream raw materials of ferrosilicon carbon, which requires about 1.1 tons of carbon per ton of ferrosilicon
Therefore, the policy may directly increase the cost of producing ferrosilicon, and the lowest production cost in Inner Mongolia is currently in the range of 6200.
Therefore, the content of the document has a direct impact on the upstream raw materials of ferrosilicon and the production, but the detailed document has not yet been issued.
Now the demand side is expected to strengthen with the steel real estate policy, and now the supply side is affected by the news, and the operating rate continues to increase production under the current profit situation, leading to expectations before and after supply and demand.
The fundamentals of ferrosilicon as a whole have strengthened, but such a rise is still the hype stage.
Due to the daily limit of the exchange also out of the risk control measures, increase the fee of ferrosilicon, increase the cost of speculation, June 4, effective Tuesday.
Circumference of ferrosilicon
In April, the total production of ferrosilicon fell to 384,000 tons, 7.9% lower than last year and 9.7% lower than the previous month
Production and demand in May also strengthened, by May 31, steel mills stored enough silicon iron for 14.71 days, nearly 5% less than last month, more than 10% less than the same period last year.
Ferrosilicon operating rate: 36.4%, 15,278 tons per day, +225
Ferrosilicon inventory: factory warehouse 50,600 tons, increase or decrease -5650 to the warehouse pace accelerated.
Ferrosilicon warehouse receipt: 2024-05-31 cumulative 16,510, later if the price continues to rise, with profits, the existing inventory and new production of goods will also be registered as a warehouse receipt by the industry.
Now because the library is faster, coupled with the news to stimulate the sentiment of hoarding goods or high probability will further push up the current pattern.
Long seat:
After the news came out, the bulls strongly intervened on the day of a large increase of 92,200 lots, accounting for 48.37%.
Many people do not know why the strong rally, bears in such a situation also continued to increase, the same day the number of empty seats increased at the same time, the news spread after the noon stop has become a lot of short orders to seize flat, until the limit closed.
Because the news stimulus superimposed limit led to bullish sentiment, the next day high open high, but the price rose to 8234 began to sell back to the 30 limit price, the afternoon mood appeared to repair the formation of the word close.
From the seats of No. 31, it can be clearly seen that the original head seats are mainly reduced, and it can be seen that the high probability of falling is because of the fall of the head. And the other seats are still continue to increase positions.
The comparison between the front and back of the head seat may be done with high selling and low suction, while the small seat continues to increase the position mainly.
Short position:
From the seat of No. 30, the short position is basically increased, and only Yongan has reacted to the reduction of positions, and the short seat bright seat directly cut half the position after the close of the 31 as scheduled, and the other positions are closed with a large margin.
The Yong An shorts may have done T shorts to increase again, but at the same time, it also appeared in the sixth seat of the bulls (the daily limit is not in the list).
By observing this seat:
The first pull up the limit of the next day of the mood of the head seat high throw low, was hit by the head to yesterday’s limit price, but the mood soon repaired in the afternoon, the repair process is a large probability of small seats and short positions to close the market together to promote, the end of the long continued to withdraw to reduce the position caused prices to fall.
Ferrosilicon shrinkage limit, and then to the transaction explosion, through the long and short game situation can know that the mood is not consistent, but it is still a multi-party strong, empty side withdrawal of such a situation.
In SUMMARY:
At present, ferrosilicon is still in the news speculation, driven by the rising limit of the pan bullish sentiment, while the document is still evaluating the impact of the substance, industrial production has not yet received the substance of the red head documents.
But it has indeed led to the industry’s expectations of the policy, so there will be changes such as reluctance to sell, accelerated inventory decline, and continued increase in production capacity.
If the industry continues to hedge in the later stage, the spot flow will be locked, and the spot price will be further increased, and the steel mill is still mainly needed.
Due to the high toss and low suction of the head, although there is a large exchange of chips, it has little impact on the mood.
In such a pattern, the head position has risen and the situation of high throwing chips is inconsistent to adjust down the safety pad will be relatively ideal.
However, there are still many unknown factors or news that have not appeared, and the awe market remains cautious.
