【 Thread/Hot coil 】
Shock weakening
My steel net data shows that yesterday’s volume was 11,300 tons. On the supply side, steel mills are expected to have room to resume production, production or continue to slowly rebound, or pressure on the supply side. After the nationwide rainy weather, apparent consumption is expected to weaken. Although there are continuous favorable policies in the macro aspect, the short-term trend of weakening demand has not been reversed. Especially at present, the raw materials of the plate continue to be weak, and also drive the center of gravity of the material down. However, because the current inventory is overall low, there is some support for the spot. The market needs to observe the trend of raw materials on the plate, and the impact of the news on the plate.
【 Iron ore 】
Weak oscillation
On the supply side, global shipments continued to fall during the current period, with Australian mine shipments recovering, Brazilian mine shipments declining, and port arrivals recovering, maintaining a normal rhythm on the whole. In terms of demand, the average daily output of molten iron was 2.3575 million tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons from the previous quarter. With the arrival of the off-season of terminal demand, the demand of steel mills is expected to fall, and the National Development and Reform Commission issued a policy to reduce energy consumption and control output, and the profits of steel mills are narrowed, and the procurement is cautious, and the raw material ore is under pressure. In terms of inventory, this week mysteel statistics the national 45 port iron mine inventory of 149.2776 million tons, an increase of 80,500 tons from the previous month, port inventory continued to accumulate; The daily port opening volume was 3.1282 million tons, a decrease of 0.69 million tons from the previous quarter. On the plate, the main 09 contract fell again yesterday, and maintained weak volatility in the short term.
【 Coking coal/Coke 】
underoscillation
In terms of coking coal, accidents still occur in the production area, and most coal mines maintain normal operation. Coal mine shipments are poor, inventories have accumulated, and prices in local areas have been slightly revised. Online auction transaction prices have declined, and some coal prices have been adjusted. Downstream steel prices continue to fall, hot metal demand performance is flat, the demand side is relatively flat, downstream demand is still dominated by a small number of coke enterprises, traders and other intermediate links are still wait-and-see. JM2409 contract volatility is weak, short-term above attention to pressure around 1680.
In terms of coke, some regional steel mills put forward the second round of coke spot reduction, raising 50-60 yuan/ton, but the coking plant will refuse to lower the price of market analysis, and the short-term coke steel game will intensify. In some areas, coke enterprises are slightly limited by the impact of environmental inspection, most coke enterprises still maintain the pre-production state, the shipment is more smooth, and there is no inventory pressure in the factory. The output of molten iron in downstream steel mills fluctuates slightly, the operation of blast furnaces is relatively stable, and there is still a certain demand for coke. The rigid procurement demand for coke under the stable construction still exists, but steel prices have fallen, steel mill profits have declined, and coke still has the intention to reduce prices. J2409 contract fluctuated down, short-term above attention to pressure near 2250.
【 Ferroalloy 】
Manganese silicon, manganese ore prices remained high last week, manganese silicon costs were stable, and profits continued to rise. The profit of the northern production area is better, and the manufacturers return to the rhythm of production, and the main increment exists in Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Ningxia and Guangxi. The actual production of downstream hot metal is less than expected, resulting in a slight decline in demand, and the marginal change in late steelmaking demand has limited boost to the demand for manganese silicon. The spot market price has fallen slightly, and the 6517 North newspaper cash factory is 8100-8300 yuan/ton, and the South offers 8000-8200 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, 63 manganese silicon enterprises in the country have an inventory of 114,300 tons (-45,200 tons), and the inventory has been reduced. In summary, the recent market sentiment has returned to rationality, South Africa and Gabon manganese ore shipments have increased significantly, and domestic port manganese ore inventories have fallen short of expectations. Short-term oscillating operation of the disk.
In terms of iron silicon, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of 136 production enterprises in iron silicon producing areas in May was 54%, an increase of 7.68% from April. The national output in May 448,198 tons, an increase of 16.58%, an increase of 63,740 tons. The mainstream price of the upstream carbon market rose by 50 yuan/ton, the production cost of ferrosilicon increased steadily, and the profits of the main producing areas continued to increase; The lowest cost area of Inner Mongolia is 6162 yuan/ton, the profit of Inner Mongolia is about 838 yuan/ton, and the production profit of Qinghai region has increased to 784 yuan/ton. In terms of supply and demand, the supply of ferrosilicon is stimulated by profits, and the resumption of production by manufacturers is accelerated, and it is expected to continue to increase production in the future. As of last week, there were 60 companies in the country with an inventory of 49,500 tons of ferrosilicon (-2.19%), and the five major producing areas went to the warehouse well. Ferrosilicon is expected to continue to resume production under the background of high profits, and be wary of the risk of accumulation in the later period. Overall, the recent decline in inventory has gradually slowed down, the lack of upward drive on the disk, and the medium and long term pressure operation.
