【 Thread & Hot coil 】
Night steel prices continue to fluctuate, the fluctuation range is small. The demand for building materials is weak compared with the same period last year, the chain is gradually stabilizing, the output is relatively low, the thread to the library is relatively smooth, the hot roll to the library is still slow, and the social library is relatively high. Molten iron has risen steadily, and there is still room for improvement in the later stage, but with the rebound of raw materials, the enthusiasm for resuming production has also been suppressed. From the perspective of demand structure, the sharp decline in real estate is still the main drag, the performance of manufacturing and exports is relatively good, and the capital is expected to improve to support infrastructure. Market optimism has cooled, and there are still short-term fluctuations on the plate, focusing on terminal demand and macro sentiment changes.
【 Iron ore 】
Iron ore today, the pan fluctuated, the basis continued to maintain low fluctuations. Global iron ore shipments increased significantly, Australia and Pakistan after the end of the weather disturbance, the recovery of Australian shipments to China is particularly significant, small and medium-sized mine shipments also increased but slightly weaker than the same period last year. The high level of domestic arrivals has fallen, and considering the disturbance brought by the weather in the early period, it is expected that there is still room for further decline in the future. Last week, the production of hot metal continued to increase, and there is a certain pre-holiday stock demand for steel mills near the May Day holiday, and the demand for replenishment of steel mills has increased. In the short term, the demand for iron ore is marginal, and there is still room for the resumption of production of hot metal, but the port inventory pressure is large, and we expect the trend of iron ore to be dominated by shocks.
【 Coke 】
Spot part of the second round of lifting fell, the night test rose, the overall high volatility. Demand end steel production and sales and profits are still acceptable, hot metal production is still expected to increase slightly, pre-holiday replenishment demand stage is strong. The coke loss at the supply end has been repaired, the cost of coal in the furnace has rebounded rapidly, the production has increased slightly on the basis of low production, and the inventory at the production end has continued to be reduced. At the margin, the expectation of continuous marginal improvement on the demand side of coke is still there, and the supply side remains low, and pre-emptive replenishment exacerbates the bullish atmosphere. However, there are still about two rounds of premium prices in the far month, and the sustainability of steel prices is still in doubt, and it is time to see the shock consolidation.
【 Coking coal 】
The spot sentiment of coking coal is still strong, the sentiment of the disk has fallen due to the larger premium, and the night trading pattern has continued to shake. The demand side of hot metal has a continuous small increase in production, and the expectation of continuous increase of coke has a resonance effect on coking coal. At the supply end, some coal mines in the early stage of the accident have resumed production, and the whole coking coal mine has recovered slightly on the basis of the low production in the early stage, and can still maintain the rigidity of low production. At the import end, Mengmei maintains a high clearance level of about 1,000 carloads; Australian coal continued to fall after the end of the upside down, began to import a small amount. Overall, the margin of coking coal demand continues to improve, and the spot has increased, but because the price has risen to a more significant premium, after the steel price sentiment stagflation, the coking coal price has fallen, and continues to see the shock consolidation.
【 manganese silicon 】
Prices rose strongly on manganese news. Silicon manganese weekly production has been locked up, hot metal production slightly upward, silicon manganese market inventory is still increasing. Chemical coke rose with coke, affected by the short-term inability of South32 to resume exports, long-term manganese ore and port manganese ore quotes have risen, and the cost of silicon manganese has continued to rise. In the short term, the price of silicon manganese plate is mainly bullish, and the medium and long term view is still short under the influence of too high market inventory.
【 ferrosilicon 】
Price follows silica manganese upward. Molten iron production slightly upward, the export volume of ferrosilicon maintained a high position, the supply and demand margin improved, the price of carbon orchid rose, the weekly average production began to rise, and the inventory maintained a trend of destocking in the short term. The purchase volume of steel mills is still low, and the price sentiment is still strong, but it will take time for the next steel recruitment. Short-term bulls dominate.
